NCAA Tournament Playtime TV Odds Prediction

THE DETAILS

When: 13:40 sunday

Where: Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, North Carolina

TELEVISION: CBS

Radio: KCSP (610 AM) in Kansas City, KKGQ (92.3 FM) in Wichita

Bet line: Kentucky by 2.5

Up down: 145

INITIAL LINES

About No. 6 Kentucky (22-11):

The Wildcats are coming off a 61-53 victory over Providence in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. Kentucky won the game thanks to an incredible 25 rebounds from center Oscar Tshiebwe. But the Wildcats got scoring contributions from everywhere. Kentucky is big in almost every position. All five starters are 1.80 m or taller. Kentucky has all kinds of cup success and grabs offensive rebounds at an elite level. Nearly 40% of their offensive possessions result in second-chance opportunities.

About No. 3 Kansas State (24-9):

The Wildcats are coming off a 77-65 win over Montana State in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. K-State pulled away early in the second half of that game and never looked back. Markquis Nowell finished with a career-high 17 points and 14 assists. Keyontae Johnson had 18 points and eight rebounds. Nae’Qwan Tomlin and David N’Guessan hit double figures in the paint. K-State defends the three-point line at an elite level, but struggles with turnovers. Limiting errors seems to be the most important part of their games.

Prediction

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: K-State and Kentucky are about to play in an NCAA tournament game for Wildcat supremacy.

These teams are about to meet in the postseason for the third time in the last decade.

Kentucky won the first meeting 56-49 in 2014. K-State won the last meeting 61-58 in the Sweet 16 of 2018. Now we have a rubber match.

the story continues

This one could go either way.

K-State will wear white jerseys as the top seed, but Kentucky is favored by 2 1/2 points. John Calipari’s team will also benefit from a huge attendance advantage on Sunday as the Big Blue Nation fill the Greensboro Coliseum with fans.

That could be a big factor considering how much K-State has struggled away from home this season. But there will be a few hundred purple-clad fans in attendance. So maybe that angle is exaggerated. Kentucky benefiting from a rest lead on a quick comeback looks more significant.

On the court, K-State will need to make Kentucky react to the way they play, not the other way around. Jerome Tang’s team defends the three-point line very well. If he can keep Kentucky from taking shots from the outside and being an aggressor on offense, with Nae’Qwan Tomlin and David N’Guessan having Oscar Tshiebwe defend the perimeter, he’ll take the risk.

But Kentucky is picking up offensive rebounds at a breakneck pace. If Kentucky can rack up a lot of easy points from second-chance opportunities and Tomlin gets into early trouble against Tshiebwe, it could be a long day for K-State.

Kentucky doesn’t force turnover at a high rate (16.7% of the time), which is good news for K-State.

Calipari made an interesting comment on Saturday. He said an opposing player tends to do something “crazy” against them whenever Kentucky loses games this season. Can anyone on the K-State roster reach a “crazy” level in this game?

Can Markquis Nowell nail some three logos? Can Keyontae Johnson flirt with 30 points? Can Tomlin make a run at 20 points.

If the answer is yes then I think K-State advances to the Sweet 16. If the answer is no then Kentucky will move on.

It’s a tough decision, but I’m going to give Kentucky a little advantage here. He possesses a size advantage in all positions against K-State, and that can make it difficult for K-State guards to get on the lane and be productive on the dribble.

There seem to be more paths to victory for Kentucky in this game than there are in K-State, and versatility is king this time of year.

Kentucky 72, K-State 68

Last game prediction: K-State 77, Montana State 64 (Real: K-State 77, Montana State 65).

Season record: 23-10.

Season record against the spread: 17-16.